IMD carries an orange heatwave alert for Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha as temperatures hit 45.9C in Odisha and 45.1C in Bihar - driven by a Bay of Bengal moisture lull and a delayed monsoon onset.
IMD's second-stage forecast puts June-September 2026 at 90% of LPA with a 60% chance of deficient rainfall - the first below-average monsoon call in three years, as El Nino nears certainty.
The June 3-5 MPC meeting faces converging pressure: WPI at a 42-month high of 8.3%, CPI at 3.48%, crude near $106/barrel, and a below-normal monsoon forecast. Most analysts expect a hold.
Sri Ganganagar hit 48.2C, Banda matched it. Here is the atmospheric science - anticyclonic ridges, absent Western Disturbances, soil feedback - behind North India's May 2026 heatwave.
India's southwest monsoon is set to reach Kerala around May 26, days ahead of its normal June 1 onset — even as Delhi and the north bake under 44°C heatwaves. What the IMD forecast says, and why El Niño is the wildcard.